Install
openclaw skills install @diagnostikon/kalshi-eth-staking-yield-traderKalshi Eth Staking Yield Trader
Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using the 4% staking yield as a fundamental price floor. When markets underprice ETH relative to the yield-implied floor, buy YES. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk.
Kalshi ETH Staking Yield Trader
This is a template. The default signal uses a static 4% staking yield as a price floor -- remix it with live Lido/Rocket Pool yield data, validator queue depth, or MEV reward estimates. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
ETH staking yields approximately 4% APR, creating a fundamental floor for ETH price. Rational stakers will not sell below the yield-implied value. This skill computes that floor for each market's time horizon and trades when Kalshi prices imply ETH below the floor.
Key advantages:
- Fundamental floor -- staking yield provides a minimum return that supports price
- Time-adjusted -- yield floor scales with days to market resolution
- Conservative model -- only accounts for yield, not price appreciation upside
Signal Logic
Yield Floor Model
- Fetch active ETH price markets from Kalshi
- Extract price target from each market question
- Compute yield floor:
floor = base_price * (1 + yield% * days/365) - Compute fair probability based on target vs floor relationship
- Trade when
|fair - market| >= entry_edge
Example (with defaults, base=$3500, yield=4%)
| Market | Target | Days | Floor | Fair P | Market P | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH above $3000 | $3000 | 30 | $3511 | 85% | 72% | BUY YES |
| ETH above $4000 | $4000 | 30 | $3511 | 40% | 45% | Hold |
| ETH above $5000 | $5000 | 30 | $3511 | 15% | 28% | BUY NO |
Conviction-Based Sizing
conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0size = max($5.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
Remix Ideas
- Live yield API: Pull real-time staking yield from Lido/Rocket Pool
- Validator queue depth: Queue length affects future yield expectations
- MEV rewards: Include MEV as additional yield component
- Macro overlay: Adjust floor based on Fed rate decisions
Risk Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry edge | 8% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |
| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |
| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |
| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |
| Staking yield | 4.0% | Annual staking yield assumption |
| Base ETH price | $3500 | Current ETH price baseline |
Installation & Setup
clawhub install kalshi-eth-staking-yield-trader
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.
Cron Schedule
Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py | Dry run | None |
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |
python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |
The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.08 | Min divergence to trigger trade |
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle |
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping (15%) |
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_YIELD_PCT | 4.0 | Annual staking yield assumption |
SIMMER_ETH_STAKE_BASE_PRICE | 3500 | Current ETH price baseline |
Dependency
simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
- Publisher: hello@simmer.markets
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.