Manifold Markets

Read and trade on Manifold Markets (search markets, fetch probabilities, inspect users/bets, place bets/sell/comment). Never place a bet/sell/comment without explicit user confirmation.

Security Scan

The skill's requirements and runtime instructions align with its stated purpose (reading and trading on Manifold); it only needs curl and a MANIFOLD_API_KEY and the SKILL.md stays within expected API calls and confirmation rules.

Purpose & Capability

Name/description (Manifold Markets trading + read) match the declared requirements: curl and MANIFOLD_API_KEY are exactly what a Manifold API integration needs. No unrelated binaries or credentials are requested.

Instruction Scope

SKILL.md provides concrete curl commands against api.manifold.markets, requires fetching the market before writes, and mandates explicit user confirmation before placing bets/sells/comments. It does not instruct reading unrelated files or exfiltrating data to other endpoints (it only references storing the API key in ~/.openclaw/openclaw.json as an optional config location).

Install Mechanism

No install spec or code files are provided (instruction-only). This minimizes on-disk code installation risk.

Credentials

Only a single credential (MANIFOLD_API_KEY) is required and declared as primaryEnv, which is proportionate for a trading/integration skill. No unrelated secrets or multiple credentials are requested.

Persistence & Privilege

Skill is not forced-always (always: false) and does not request elevated system-wide privileges or to modify other skills. Normal autonomous invocation is allowed by platform defaults but is not a red flag by itself.

Assessment

This skill appears coherent for interacting with Manifold Markets. Before installing: only provide a MANIFOLD_API_KEY you trust (consider using a key with limited scope if supported), confirm you are comfortable the agent can make network calls to the Manifold API (these are needed to place trades), and verify the skill source if you require provenance. Note the SKILL.md requires explicit user confirmation before any write action — still be cautious: if you grant the API key and later revoke it if you see unexpected activity. If you need extra assurance, test read-only actions first and avoid storing long-lived credentials in places accessible to other apps.

Use this skill to read from Manifold Markets (search markets, fetch probabilities, inspect public user info) and to place trades/comments with explicit confirmation.

Write actions require MANIFOLD_API_KEY (in the environment or configured via OpenClaw skill entries).

Base URL: https://api.manifold.markets/v0

Docs: https://docs.manifold.markets/api

Read tasks

Search markets

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5"

Tip: replace spaces with + (or URL-encode). If you have jq, format results:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets?term=AI+safety&limit=5" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, createdTime, creatorUsername}'

List newest markets

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10"

With jq:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets?limit=10" | jq '.[] | {id, slug, question, outcomeType, probability, closeTime}'

Get market details (by ID)

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID"

Binary markets usually expose probability (0..1). Other market types may not have a single probability field.

Get market details (by slug)

The slug is the portion of the Manifold URL after the username (e.g. .../Alice/my-market-slug → my-market-slug).

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/MARKET_SLUG"

Inspect a user (by username)

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"

List bets for a user

If you have jq:

USER_ID="$(curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME" | jq -r '.id')"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=$USER_ID&limit=50"

Without jq, fetch the user JSON and read the id field, then use it:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/user/USERNAME"
curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?userId=USER_ID&limit=50"

Write safety rules

• Never place a bet, sell shares, or post a comment unless the user explicitly confirms (e.g. “yes, place it”, “confirm”, “do it”).
• Always fetch the market first and restate: market question, market id/slug, action (bet/sell/comment), side/answer, amount/shares, and any limits.
• If the user is not explicit about amount/side, stop and ask.

Write tasks

Authentication

• Uses MANIFOLD_API_KEY in header: Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY
• Set MANIFOLD_API_KEY (or skills.manifold.apiKey in ~/.openclaw/openclaw.json).

Place a bet (binary market)

1. Fetch the market and confirm it’s the right one:

curl -s "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID"

2. Preview the exact payload you intend to send (do not run the POST until user confirms):

cat <<'JSON'
{"amount":10,"contractId":"MARKET_ID","outcome":"YES"}
JSON

3. After explicit confirmation, place the bet:

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bet" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"amount":10,"contractId":"MARKET_ID","outcome":"YES"}'

Notes:

• amount is in Mana (integer).
• outcome is YES or NO for binary markets.
• For non-binary markets, consult the Manifold API docs for the correct payload.

Sell shares

Preview first (do not run until user confirms).

Sell all shares for an outcome (omit shares to sell all):

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID/sell" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"outcome":"YES"}'

Sell a specific number of shares:

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/MARKET_ID/sell" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"outcome":"YES","shares":10}'

Post a comment

Comments made through the API can incur a fee (see Manifold API docs). Always confirm text + target market.

curl -s -X POST "https://api.manifold.markets/v0/comment" \
  -H "Authorization: Key $MANIFOLD_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"contractId":"MARKET_ID","content":"Your comment here."}'

Notes

• Rate limits apply (see Manifold API docs).
• Private/unlisted markets may not be accessible via the public API depending on current platform behavior.