# Trend Evaluation Matrix — Scoring Framework

Use this matrix to score any TikTok or short-form trend before committing production resources. Score each factor and total up before deciding to proceed.

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## Scoring Instructions

Rate each factor from 0 to the maximum points shown. Be conservative — the purpose of this matrix is to prevent wasted production effort, not to justify executing every trend you encounter.

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## Section 1 — Trend Timing (25 points)

### 1.1 Discovery Day (10 points)
When did you first identify this trend relative to its initial niche appearance?

| Timing | Points |
|---|---|
| Day 1–2 (early adopter window) | 10 |
| Day 3–4 (early majority window) | 7 |
| Day 5–6 (late majority window) | 3 |
| Day 7+ (saturating) | 0 |

**Score — __ / 10**

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### 1.2 Current Use Count (10 points)
Total number of posts using this audio or format at time of evaluation.

| Use Count | Points |
|---|---|
| Under 50k uses | 10 |
| 50k–200k uses | 7 |
| 200k–500k uses | 3 |
| 500k+ uses | 0 |

**Score — __ / 10**

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### 1.3 Niche Saturation (5 points)
How saturated is this trend specifically within your product category or niche?

| Niche Status | Points |
|---|---|
| Not yet used in your niche | 5 |
| 1–3 competitors have used it | 3 |
| 4–10 competitors have used it | 1 |
| 10+ competitors have used it | 0 |

**Score — __ / 5**

**Section 1 Total — __ / 25**

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## Section 2 — Product–Trend Fit (30 points)

### 2.1 Natural Connection Strength (15 points)
How authentically does your product fit the trend format?

| Connection Quality | Points |
|---|---|
| Product fits the trend's core mechanic with zero explanation needed | 15 |
| Product fits with minor creative stretch — the connection is still intuitive | 10 |
| Product fits with a clever angle that requires 1–2 seconds to register | 5 |
| Product fits only with explicit explanation — feels forced | 0 |

**Score — __ / 15**

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### 2.2 Audio Tone Match (10 points)
Does the trend's audio emotional tone align with your brand and product message?

| Match Level | Points |
|---|---|
| Audio tone perfectly matches brand (energy, emotion, pace) | 10 |
| Slight mismatch but workable | 6 |
| Significant mismatch — the audio creates wrong associations | 0 |

**Score — __ / 10**

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### 2.3 Target Audience Overlap (5 points)
Is your target buying audience actively using this trend?

| Overlap Level | Points |
|---|---|
| Trend is heavily used by your target demographic | 5 |
| Trend has partial overlap with your target demographic | 3 |
| Trend is mostly used by demographics outside your buyer profile | 0 |

**Score — __ / 5**

**Section 2 Total — __ / 30**

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## Section 3 — Brand Safety and Risk (20 points)

### 3.1 Content Origin Safety (10 points)
Where did the trend originate, and are there any sensitive associations?

| Safety Level | Points |
|---|---|
| Neutral entertainment origin — no sensitive associations | 10 |
| Minor associations that are manageable with careful execution | 5 |
| Originated from controversial content, political topic, or sensitive event | 0 |

**Score — __ / 10**

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### 3.2 Brand–Trend Alignment (10 points)
Does participating in this trend reinforce or undermine your brand identity?

| Alignment | Points |
|---|---|
| Participation clearly reinforces your brand positioning | 10 |
| Neutral — no brand reinforcement but no damage | 6 |
| Participation feels inconsistent with your brand voice | 2 |
| Participation would damage brand credibility | 0 |

**Score — __ / 10**

**Section 3 Total — __ / 20**

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## Section 4 — Production Feasibility (25 points)

### 4.1 Can You Execute Within the Timing Window? (15 points)
Based on your current production capacity, can you film and post this within 48 hours?

| Feasibility | Points |
|---|---|
| Can be filmed today and posted within 24 hours | 15 |
| Can be filmed today and posted within 48 hours | 10 |
| Requires scheduling — can post within 4 days | 4 |
| Requires a planned shoot day — 5+ days out | 0 |

**Score — __ / 15**

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### 4.2 Production Complexity (10 points)
How complex is the production required for a credible execution of this trend?

| Complexity | Points |
|---|---|
| Phone-only, single location, available talent (creator themselves) | 10 |
| Simple props or multiple angles needed — still doable same-day | 7 |
| Requires specific location, props, or additional people | 3 |
| Requires studio setup, specialized assets, or multiple shooting days | 0 |

**Score — __ / 10**

**Section 4 Total — __ / 25**

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## Total Score Interpretation

**Maximum possible — 100 points**

| Total Score | Decision |
|---|---|
| **85–100** | 🟢 Execute immediately — this is a high-priority trend opportunity |
| **70–84** | 🟡 Proceed with strong execution — address any flagged factors |
| **55–69** | 🟠 Proceed with caution — at least one significant gap exists |
| **40–54** | 🔴 Marginal — only proceed if production cost is minimal |
| **Below 40** | ⛔ Skip — the combination of poor fit and/or timing makes participation net-negative |

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## Evaluation Summary Sheet

Complete this summary after scoring all sections.

**Trend name / description:** ___
**Audio name:** ___
**Evaluation date:** ___
**Evaluator:** ___

| Section | Score | Max | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 — Timing | | 25 | |
| 2 — Product–Trend Fit | | 30 | |
| 3 — Brand Safety | | 20 | |
| 4 — Production Feasibility | | 25 | |
| **TOTAL** | | **100** | |

**Decision:** ⬜ Execute  ⬜ Proceed with caution  ⬜ Skip

**Decision rationale (2–3 sentences):**
___

**If proceeding — post deadline:**
___

**If skipping — alternative action:**
⬜ Monitor trend for 48h and re-evaluate
⬜ Note the trend format for future reference (evergreen format)
⬜ Skip entirely — trend and product are incompatible

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## Section Score Benchmarks

Use these benchmarks to identify where the trend opportunity is strongest or weakest:

| Section | Below This = Problem | Above This = Good |
|---|---|---|
| Timing (/ 25) | < 10 | > 17 |
| Product–Trend Fit (/ 30) | < 15 | > 22 |
| Brand Safety (/ 20) | < 12 | > 16 |
| Production Feasibility (/ 25) | < 10 | > 18 |

A score below the "Problem" threshold in **any single section** warrants re-evaluation even if the total score is high. A poor timing score (trend already saturated) cannot be compensated by a perfect product fit score.

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## Quick Evaluation (Under 2 Minutes)

If you're in the field and need a fast go/no-go, use these three questions:

1. **Is the use count under 500k and have you seen it fewer than 3 times in your niche?** (Yes = timing is viable)
2. **Can you explain in one sentence how your product fits this trend without it sounding forced?** (Yes = product fit is viable)
3. **Can you film and post this within 48 hours?** (Yes = production is feasible)

**All 3 Yes → Proceed to full evaluation and brief**
**Any No → Full evaluation to identify whether the gap can be resolved or the trend should be skipped**