{"skill":{"slug":"trading-brain","displayName":"Trading Brain","summary":"Load Travis's personal trading strategy and rules to guide aggressive trades, focusing on early-stage next-wave market opportunities and strict risk limits.","description":"# trading-brain\n\nLoad Travis's personal trading strategy, rules, and mental models into the current session. Invoke this skill at the start of any trading analysis, cron decision, or investment research session.\n\n## When to Use\n- Starting a trading cron (pre-market, mid-morning, close review)\n- Making a buy/sell/hold decision\n- Researching a new position or sector\n- Running a next-wave scan\n- Any time you need to think like Travis's trading partner, not just a generic AI\n\n---\n\n## Mission\n$100K → $150K ASAP on Account 1. Aggressive. Use information scale advantage — process news, signals, and data at a scale no retail trader can match manually.\n\n---\n\n## The Core Edge: Information Scale\n\n### Sources to scan (in order of freshness)\n1. **Serper (Google News)** — `~/clawd/integrations/serper/search.sh \"query\" 5 news` — USE THIS FIRST, fresher than Brave\n2. **X/Twitter** — breaking news, political signals, sentiment\n3. **Polymarket** — prediction market odds shifts >10% = tradeable signal\n4. **Reddit** — r/wallstreetbets (meme/sentiment), r/stocks, r/cryptocurrency\n5. **SCMP / FT** — Asia/China macro, Taiwan, trade war signals\n\n### What to look for\n- Geopolitical shifts (wars, sanctions, tariffs, elections)\n- Fed signals (rate decisions, Powell tone, PCE/CPI surprises)\n- Earnings surprises + guidance beats/misses\n- Social media viral moments (meme stocks, crypto pumps)\n- Policy announcements with clear market impact\n\n---\n\n## 🌊 Next Wave Mindset (Most Important)\n\n**Don't chase what's already high. Find what's NEXT.**\n\nBy the time CNBC is talking about it, the easy money is gone.\n\n### The 3-Act Framework\nEvery mega-trend matures through 3 acts:\n\n```\nAct 1 — Early: Ignored, boring, hated. Smart money quietly accumulating.\nAct 2 — Mid:   CNBC coverage, analyst upgrades, retail arrives. Good but crowded.\nAct 3 — Late:  Euphoria, everyone knows. Risk/reward terrible. AVOID.\n```\n\nHistorical examples:\n- AI: NVDA chips (Act 1✅) → Cloud infra (Act 2) → AI apps/SaaS (Act 3 ❌)\n- Energy crisis: Oil majors (Act 1✅) → LNG shippers (Act 2) → Solar subsidies (Act 3 ❌)\n- Crypto '21: BTC (Act 1✅) → Altcoins (Act 2) → NFTs (Act 3 ❌)\n\n### How to Find Act 1\nAsk these questions:\n- What does the current hot sector **depend on upstream**? (AI → power → cooling → rare earth)\n- What gets **built because of** the trend? (AI boom → data centers → grid → nuclear)\n- What sector is **boring/hated today** that solves a problem the hot sector creates?\n- What did **Buffett/sovereign funds/insiders** quietly buy 6-12 months ago?\n\n### Current Next-Wave Candidates (Feb 2026)\n| Candidate | Why | Tickers to watch |\n|-----------|-----|-----------------|\n| Power infrastructure | AI is power-hungry, grid can't keep up | CEG, VST, ETN |\n| Cooling & thermal | Every AI chip needs cooling (VRT moved — what's next?) | TBD |\n| Humanoid robotics parts | Not robot makers (priced) — actuators, sensors, servos | TBD |\n| Cybersecurity | Every AI deployment = new attack surface, undervalued | CRWD, S, PANW |\n| AI infra outside US | Middle East, SE Asia sovereign AI buildout | TBD |\n| Commodity inputs | Copper (wiring), rare earths (robot magnets), helium | FCX, MP |\n\n---\n\n## Trading Rules\n\n### Risk Management (non-negotiable)\n- Max **1% loss per trade**\n- Max **3% daily drawdown** — stop trading if hit\n- Max **5 open positions** at once\n- No single position >**20% of portfolio**\n- Cut losers fast. Let winners run.\n\n### Entry Signals\n- Breaking news with clear, direct market impact\n- Polymarket odds shift >10% on a tradeable event\n- Earnings surprise + guidance beat\n- Policy announcement (tariffs, sanctions, rate changes)\n- Social media momentum building (not after it's viral)\n\n### Position Types\n- **News trade** — quick in/out, hours to 1 day\n- **Macro bet** — hold weeks/months on a policy theme\n- **Earnings play** — pre/post earnings momentum\n- **Next wave** — early position, hold until Act 2 begins\n\n### Current Positions (update from Alpaca before deciding)\nConfig: `~/Documents/GitHub/trade-bot/config.yaml`\nAccount ID: Account 1 (manual trading)\n- NVDA, ARM, TSM, AVGO, VRT — core AI semi basket\n\n### TQQQ/SQQQ Daily Direction\n- $5K per trade on Account 2\n- Only trade if conviction >55%\n- Tracker: `~/clawd/memory/trading/tqqq-sqqq-tracker.json`\n\n---\n\n## Communication Rules\n- **Morning report only** — don't ping Travis mid-day\n- **Exception:** Alert immediately if >5% swing on any position OR $150K target hit\n- Keep reports tight — he's busy\n- Document every trade: thesis, outcome, lesson learned → `~/clawd/memory/trades.md`\n\n---\n\n## Weekly Next-Wave Task\n1. Ask: \"What does the current hot trade NEED that isn't priced in yet?\"\n2. Check big tech capex announcements — follow the money downstream\n3. Scan supply chain bottleneck reports\n4. Update candidates in `~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md`\n\nFull strategy details: `~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md`\nTrade history & lessons: `~/clawd/memory/trades.md`\nNext-wave research: `~/clawd/memory/trading/NEXT-WAVE-RESEARCH.md`\n","tags":{"latest":"1.0.0"},"stats":{"comments":0,"downloads":2474,"installsAllTime":16,"installsCurrent":16,"stars":0,"versions":1},"createdAt":1772228857101,"updatedAt":1779077368070},"latestVersion":{"version":"1.0.0","createdAt":1772228857101,"changelog":"Travis's personal trading strategy: information edge, next-wave mindset, risk rules, TQQQ/SQQQ, and current positions framework.","license":null},"metadata":null,"owner":{"handle":"travislius","userId":"s175yy692t17g9tv0q183ydcx1885vse","displayName":"Travis Li","image":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/64033454?v=4"},"moderation":{"isSuspicious":false,"isMalwareBlocked":false,"verdict":"clean","reasonCodes":["review.llm_review"],"summary":"Review: review.llm_review","engineVersion":"v2.4.24","updatedAt":1779965357716}}