{"skill":{"slug":"second-order-effects","displayName":"Second Order Effects","summary":"Analyze decisions by tracing consequences beyond immediate outcomes to second and third-order effects.","description":"---\nname: Second Order Effects\nslug: second-order-effects\nversion: 1.0.0\nhomepage: https://clawic.com/skills/second-order-effects\ndescription: Analyze decisions by tracing consequences beyond immediate outcomes to second and third-order effects.\nmetadata: {\"clawdbot\":{\"emoji\":\"🔮\",\"requires\":{\"bins\":[]},\"os\":[\"linux\",\"darwin\",\"win32\"]}}\n---\n\n## Setup\n\nIf `~/second-order-effects/` doesn't exist, or user's memory file shows setup incomplete, read `setup.md` first.\n\n## When to Use\n\nUser faces a decision with non-obvious downstream effects. Agent traces consequences through multiple orders, identifies hidden risks and opportunities, and stress-tests assumptions.\n\n## Architecture\n\nMemory lives in `~/second-order-effects/`. See `memory-template.md` for structure.\n\n```\n~/second-order-effects/\n├── memory.md          # Preferences + past analyses\n├── decisions/         # Archived decision analyses\n│   └── YYYY-MM-DD_topic.md\n└── patterns.md        # Learned consequence patterns\n```\n\n## Quick Reference\n\n| Topic | File |\n|-------|------|\n| Setup process | `setup.md` |\n| Memory template | `memory-template.md` |\n| Analysis framework | `framework.md` |\n| Common patterns | `patterns.md` |\n\n## Core Rules\n\n### 1. Always Go Three Levels Deep\nFirst-order: What happens immediately?\nSecond-order: What does that cause?\nThird-order: What does THAT cause?\n\nMost people stop at first-order. Competitive advantage lives in second and third.\n\n### 2. Consider All Stakeholders\nMap who is affected at each order:\n- Direct participants\n- Indirect observers\n- Market/ecosystem\n- Future self\n\nEach stakeholder creates new consequence chains.\n\n### 3. Invert the Question\nAfter mapping positive outcomes, ask: \"What could go wrong at each level?\"\n\n| Order | Optimistic | Pessimistic |\n|-------|------------|-------------|\n| 1st | Direct benefit | Obvious risk |\n| 2nd | Compounding gain | Hidden cost |\n| 3rd | Strategic advantage | Systemic risk |\n\n### 4. Time-Weight Consequences\nNear-term consequences feel larger than they are. Apply discount:\n- 1st order (now): weight 0.5\n- 2nd order (weeks/months): weight 1.0\n- 3rd order (years): weight 1.5\n\nDecisions that sacrifice 2nd/3rd order for 1st are usually wrong.\n\n### 5. Document Predictions\nEvery analysis should include falsifiable predictions with timestamps. Review quarterly. Update `patterns.md` when patterns emerge.\n\n## Consequence Chain Format\n\nUse this structure for every analysis:\n\n```markdown\n## Decision: [One sentence]\n\n### First Order (Immediate)\n- Effect 1 → leads to...\n- Effect 2 → leads to...\n\n### Second Order (Weeks-Months)\n- [Effect 1] causes → ...\n- [Effect 2] causes → ...\n\n### Third Order (Months-Years)\n- [Second-order effect] causes → ...\n\n### Stakeholder Map\n| Who | 1st Order | 2nd Order | 3rd Order |\n|-----|-----------|-----------|-----------|\n\n### Inversion (What Could Go Wrong)\n- Risk at 2nd order: ...\n- Risk at 3rd order: ...\n\n### Decision: [Proceed/Pause/Reject] because [reason tied to 2nd/3rd order]\n```\n\n## Common Traps\n\n- Stopping at first order → miss compounding effects\n- Ignoring negative second-order effects → blindsided by hidden costs\n- Over-weighting immediate pain → sacrifice long-term position\n- Analysis paralysis → set time limit (15-30 min), then decide\n- Confident predictions → use probability ranges, not certainties\n\n## Scope\n\nThis skill ONLY:\n- Analyzes decisions using consequence chains\n- Stores analyses in `~/second-order-effects/`\n- Learns patterns from past decisions\n\nThis skill NEVER:\n- Makes decisions for the user\n- Accesses external data without request\n- Modifies its own SKILL.md\n\n## Security & Privacy\n\n**Data that stays local:**\n- Decision analyses in ~/second-order-effects/\n- Learned patterns and preferences\n\n**This skill does NOT:**\n- Send data externally\n- Access files outside its directory\n- Make network requests\n\n## Related Skills\nInstall with `clawhub install <slug>` if user confirms:\n- `first-principles-thinking` - break problems to fundamentals\n- `six-thinking-hats` - parallel thinking modes\n- `strategy` - strategic planning frameworks\n\n## Feedback\n\n- If useful: `clawhub star second-order-effects`\n- Stay updated: `clawhub sync`\n","tags":{"latest":"1.0.0"},"stats":{"comments":0,"downloads":913,"installsAllTime":34,"installsCurrent":2,"stars":0,"versions":1},"createdAt":1771622813509,"updatedAt":1778491594064},"latestVersion":{"version":"1.0.0","createdAt":1771622813509,"changelog":"Initial release","license":null},"metadata":{"setup":[],"os":["linux","darwin","win32"],"systems":null},"owner":{"handle":"ivangdavila","userId":"s178jdk12x4qj3gs2se3etxf3h83h7ft","displayName":"Iván","image":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/81719670?v=4"},"moderation":null}