{"skill":{"slug":"polymarket-emerging-tech-trader","displayName":"Polymarket Emerging Tech Trader","summary":"Trades Polymarket prediction markets on Web3/DeFi milestones, NFT market recovery, metaverse adoption, humanoid robotics deployments, quantum computing break...","description":"---\nname: polymarket-emerging-tech-trader\ndescription: Trades Polymarket prediction markets on Web3/DeFi milestones, NFT market recovery, metaverse adoption, humanoid robotics deployments, quantum computing breakthroughs, and synthetic biology commercialization. Use when you want to capture alpha on niche emerging technology markets where most retail traders lack domain expertise.\nmetadata:\n  author: Diagnostikon\n  version: '1.0'\n  displayName: Emerging Tech Trader\n  difficulty: advanced\n---\n\n# Emerging Tech Trader\n\n> **This is a template.**  \n> The default signal is keyword discovery + on-chain data signals — remix it with DeFiLlama TVL feeds, GitHub commit velocity for quantum computing projects, robotics deployment trackers, or synthetic biology investment databases.  \n> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\n\n## Strategy Overview\n\nEmerging tech markets are among the highest-edge opportunities on Polymarket because most retail participants lack domain expertise. A trader with genuine technical knowledge in robotics, quantum computing, or DeFi holds massive informational advantage.\n\nThis skill covers 5 sub-categories:\n\n### 1. Web3 & DeFi\n- Prediction market TVL milestones, cross-chain liquidity thresholds\n- NFT market recovery volume markers\n- Tokenized prediction position collateral milestones\n\n### 2. Metaverse & VR/AR\n- Meta Horizon DAU milestones, VR headset sales\n- Virtual real estate transaction volumes\n\n### 3. Robotics & Automation\n- Humanoid robot factory deployments (Figure, Tesla Optimus, 1X)\n- Autonomous delivery robot counts\n- Warehouse automation penetration rates\n\n### 4. Quantum Computing\n- IBM qubit count milestones\n- Commercial quantum revenue thresholds\n- Quantum advantage demonstrations\n\n### 5. Synthetic Biology\n- Lab-grown meat regulatory approvals\n- Precision fermentation market size\n- Engineered bacteria commercial deployments\n\n## Signal Logic\n\n### Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Hype-Cycle Bias\n\n1. Discover markets matching emerging tech keywords\n2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)\n3. Apply `domain_bias()` multiplier — boost underappreciated domains, dampen hype-prone ones\n4. Size = `max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION)` — capped at MAX_POSITION\n5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution\n\n### Domain Bias (built-in, no API required)\n\nDifferent emerging tech categories have systematic mispricing patterns. `domain_bias()` adjusts conviction based on known retail behavior in each domain:\n\n| Domain | Bias | Why |\n|---|---|---|\n| Metaverse / NFT | **0.70x** | Media hype cycles inflate YES; most milestones miss |\n| Humanoid robots | **0.75x** | YouTube demos precede real deployments by 6–18 months |\n| Quantum computing | **1.30x** | arXiv progress is systematic; markets lag by weeks |\n| Synthetic biology | **1.25x** | Regulatory filings are public; market underweights precedent |\n| DeFi / TVL | **1.20x** | On-chain data is real-time; market repricing lags 2–6h |\n| Other | **1.00x** | No systematic bias detected |\n\nExample: quantum market at 25% → conviction 34% × 1.3x = 44% → $11 position. Metaverse market at same price → 34% × 0.7x = 24% → $6 (conservative).\n\n### Remix Ideas\n\n- **DeFiLlama API**: Replace `market.current_probability` with TVL-implied probability — trade the divergence between on-chain data and market price\n- **GitHub API**: Measure commit velocity on IBM Qiskit / Google Cirq repos as quantum progress signal\n- **CoinGlass / OpenSea**: NFT floor and volume data as leading indicator for NFT milestone markets\n- **The Good Food Institute**: Lab-grown meat regulatory tracker for synthetic biology markets\n- **arXiv API**: Monitor quantum/ML paper releases as leading signal before market repricing\n\n## Market Categories Tracked\n\n```python\nKEYWORDS = [\n    'Web3', 'DeFi', 'NFT', 'blockchain', 'metaverse', 'VR', 'AR',\n    'robot', 'humanoid', 'autonomous delivery', 'Boston Dynamics',\n    'Tesla Optimus', 'Figure robot', 'warehouse automation',\n    'quantum', 'qubit', 'IBM quantum', 'Google quantum',\n    'synthetic biology', 'lab-grown meat', 'cultivated meat',\n    'precision fermentation', 'Solana', 'Ethereum', 'TVL',\n]\n```\n\n## Risk Parameters\n\n| Parameter | Default | Notes |\n|-----------|---------|-------|\n| Max position size | $25 USDC | Emerging tech markets are volatile |\n| Min market volume | $2,000 | Some niche markets start illiquid |\n| Max bid-ask spread | 15% | Accept wider spreads for edge markets |\n| Min days to resolution | 14 | Technical milestones need longer lead time |\n| Max open positions | 8 | Diversify across sub-categories |\n\n## Sub-Category Edge Analysis\n\n| Category | Edge Source | Typical Market Bias |\n|----------|-------------|---------------------|\n| Quantum Computing | Academic paper lag (arXiv 6–24h before news) | Retail underestimates IBM progress |\n| Humanoid Robots | YouTube demo videos precede deployments | Fan hype overprices Tesla Optimus |\n| DeFi/TVL | On-chain data is real-time | Markets lag DeFiLlama by 2–6h |\n| Lab-Grown Meat | Regulatory filings public before decisions | Market underweights FDA precedent |\n| NFT Markets | OpenSea/Blur volume APIs | Volume data available before price consensus |\n\n## Key Data Sources\n\n- **DeFiLlama**: https://defillama.com/\n- **GitHub API**: https://api.github.com/\n- **IBM Quantum Network**: https://quantum.ibm.com/\n- **The Good Food Institute**: https://gfi.org/\n- **CoinGlass NFT**: https://www.coinglass.com/nft\n\n## Installation & Setup\n\n```bash\nclawhub install polymarket-emerging-tech-trader\n```\n\nRequires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` environment variable.\n\n## Cron Schedule\n\nRuns every 15 minutes (`*/15 * * * *`). Emerging tech events are infrequent but high-impact when they occur.\n\n## Safety & Execution Mode\n\n**The skill defaults to paper trading (`venue=\"sim\"`). Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.**\n\n| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |\n|----------|------|----------------|\n| `python trader.py` | Paper (sim) | None |\n| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |\n| `python trader.py --live` | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |\n\nThe automaton cron is set to `null` — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. `autostart: false` means it won't start automatically on install.\n\n## Required Credentials\n\n| Variable | Required | Notes |\n|----------|----------|-------|\n| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call `--live`. |\n\n## Tunables (Risk Parameters)\n\nAll risk parameters are declared in `clawhub.json` as `tunables` and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use `SIMMER_`-prefixed env vars so `apply_skill_config()` can load them securely.\n\n| Variable | Default | Purpose |\n|----------|---------|---------|\n| `SIMMER_MAX_POSITION` | `25` | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) |\n| `SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME` | `2000` | Min market volume filter (USD) |\n| `SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD` | `0.15` | Max bid-ask spread (0.15 = 15%) |\n| `SIMMER_MIN_DAYS` | `14` | Min days until market resolves |\n| `SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS` | `8` | Max concurrent open positions |\n| `SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD` | `0.38` | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |\n| `SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD` | `0.62` | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value |\n| `SIMMER_MIN_TRADE` | `5` | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |\n\n## Dependency\n\n`simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.\n- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/\n- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk\n- Publisher: hello@simmer.markets\n\nReview the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.\n","tags":{"latest":"0.0.3"},"stats":{"comments":0,"downloads":716,"installsAllTime":1,"installsCurrent":1,"stars":0,"versions":5},"createdAt":1773429243036,"updatedAt":1778491890041},"latestVersion":{"version":"0.0.3","createdAt":1777385891982,"changelog":"SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config","license":"MIT-0"},"metadata":null,"owner":{"handle":"diagnostikon","userId":"s17bf2qvfsqakddyh674vczxqs83fcwb","displayName":"diagnostikon","image":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/17246180?v=4"},"moderation":null}