{"skill":{"slug":"polymarket-crypto-onchain-trader","displayName":"Polymarket Crypto Onchain Trader","summary":"Trades Polymarket prediction markets on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana price milestones, ETF inflows, halving events, and DeFi protocol milestones. Uses three sta...","description":"---\nname: polymarket-crypto-onchain-trader\ndescription: Trades Polymarket prediction markets on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana price milestones, ETF inflows, halving events, and DeFi protocol milestones. Uses three stacked structural edges — ETF flow data timing, BTC halving cycle phase, and Asian regulatory session windows — to size conviction without any external API.\nmetadata:\n  author: Diagnostikon\n  version: \"1.0\"\n  displayName: Crypto & On-Chain Trader\n  difficulty: advanced\n---\n\n# Crypto & On-Chain Trader\n\n> **This is a template.**\n> The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and `onchain_bias()` — three stacked structural edges, no external API required.\n> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.\n\n## Strategy Overview\n\nCrypto markets have the most sophisticated on-chain data infrastructure of any asset class — and Polymarket's retail participants almost never use it. This skill exploits three documented structural edges without any API calls:\n\n1. **Instrument type confidence** — ETF flow data is published daily by Farside/CoinGlass before Polymarket retail reprices. Protocol upgrade dates are posted on GitHub weeks ahead. Retail prices these as uncertain when they aren't.\n2. **BTC halving cycle phase** — the halving date is mathematically predictable. The post-halving price cycle (consolidation → bull → distribution → bear) is historically documented. BTC price milestone markets get conviction adjusted by current cycle position.\n3. **Asian regulatory session timing** — crypto regulatory news from Korea, Japan, and China breaks during Asian business hours. Polymarket is US-dominated — repricing lags 15–30 minutes.\n\n## Signal Logic\n\n### Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with On-Chain Bias\n\n1. Discover active crypto markets on Polymarket\n2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)\n3. Apply `onchain_bias()` — three stacked layers: instrument confidence × BTC cycle phase × timing\n4. Size = `max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION)` — capped at MAX_POSITION\n5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution\n\n### On-Chain Bias (built-in, no API required)\n\n**Layer 1 — Instrument Type Confidence**\n\n| Instrument type | Multiplier | Why |\n|---|---|---|\n| Spot ETF inflows (BlackRock, Fidelity) | **1.30x** | Daily flow data (Farside/CoinGlass) published before Polymarket reprices — biggest info gap in crypto |\n| BTC halving event markets | **1.25x** | Halving date is mathematically predictable (~210,000 blocks) — retail misprices near-certain events |\n| Protocol upgrade / hard fork dates | **1.20x** | Ethereum EIP / Solana upgrade timelines on GitHub and core dev calls — public weeks ahead |\n| DeFi TVL / protocol milestones | **1.10x** | DeFiLlama tracks TVL in real-time — \"will protocol reach $X TVL\" markets lag published data |\n| BTC price milestones | **1.10x × cycle** | Halving cycle multiplier applied on top (see Layer 2) |\n| ETH / SOL / general ATH milestones | **1.10x** | On-chain data gives partial directional edge |\n| Stablecoin / crypto regulation | **1.05x** | Regulatory calendar partially predictable |\n| NFT / Ordinals milestones | **0.75x** | Narrative-driven — no on-chain predictive signal |\n| Memecoin / altcoin hype | **0.70x** | Pure retail sentiment — zero predictive signal, trade very small |\n\n**Layer 2 — BTC Halving Cycle Phase (BTC price markets only)**\n\nThe Bitcoin halving (every ~210,000 blocks, ~4 years) creates a historically documented price cycle. For BTC price milestone markets, the base type confidence is multiplied by the current cycle phase:\n\n| Phase | Days post-halving | Multiplier | Historical pattern |\n|---|---|---|---|\n| Early consolidation | 0–180 | **×1.05** | Miners sell, market absorbs supply shock |\n| Bull phase | 181–540 | **×1.20** | Historically strongest 12-month returns |\n| Distribution | 541–900 | **×1.00** | Price peaks, direction uncertain |\n| Bear phase | 901+ | **×0.85** | Fade bullish BTC price targets |\n\nLast halving: April 19, 2024 (block 840,000). Next: ~April 2028. The skill prints `btc_cycle_day=N` on startup so you always know where you are.\n\n**Layer 3 — Asian Session Timing**\n\nCrypto regulatory news from South Korea, Japan, and China breaks during Asian business hours. Polymarket is US-dominated:\n\n| Condition | Multiplier |\n|---|---|\n| Regulatory/ban/approval question + 01:00–09:00 UTC | **1.15x** — US retail asleep, repricing lag |\n| Regulatory/ban/approval question + 13:00–21:00 UTC | **0.95x** — US prime time, priced within minutes |\n\nCombined and capped at **1.40x**. An ETF inflow market in Asian hours → 1.30 × 1.15 = **1.40x cap**. A memecoin question at any time → **0.70x** — position sized near MIN_TRADE floor.\n\n### Keywords Monitored\n\n```\nBitcoin, BTC, Ethereum, ETH, Solana, SOL, crypto, ETF, halving,\nall-time high, ATH, $100k, $200k, stablecoin, USDC, Tether, DeFi,\nUniswap, Aave, Layer 2, Arbitrum, Base, BlackRock, spot ETF, inflows,\nhash rate, mempool, TVL, total value locked, EIP, hard fork, upgrade,\nPectra, Dencun, funding rate, open interest, exchange outflow, whale, on-chain\n```\n\n### Remix Signal Ideas\n\n- **Farside BTC ETF flows**: Replace `market.current_probability` with daily net flow implied probability — trade the divergence between institutional flow data and Polymarket retail pricing directly\n- **Glassnode free tier**: SOPR, NUPL, exchange inflow/outflow — feed into `p` to trade on-chain sentiment vs market price\n- **CoinGlass funding rates**: Extreme positive funding = leveraged longs = squeeze risk → fade YES on price targets; extreme negative → fade NO\n- **DeFiLlama API**: Real-time TVL for any protocol — compare to market-priced threshold for TVL milestone markets\n\n\n## Safety & Execution Mode\n\n**The skill defaults to paper trading (`venue=\"sim\"`). Real trades only with `--live` flag.**\n\n| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |\n|---|---|---|\n| `python trader.py` | Paper (sim) | None |\n| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |\n| `python trader.py --live` | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |\n\n`autostart: false` and `cron: null` — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.\n\n## Required Credentials\n\n| Variable | Required | Notes |\n|---|---|---|\n| `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential. |\n\n## Tunables (Risk Parameters)\n\nAll declared as `tunables` in `clawhub.json` and adjustable from the Simmer UI.\n\n| Variable | Default | Purpose |\n|---|---|---|\n| `SIMMER_MAX_POSITION` | `35` | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) |\n| `SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME` | `15000` | Min market volume filter (USD) — crypto needs liquidity |\n| `SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD` | `0.06` | Max bid-ask spread (6%) — tighter than other traders |\n| `SIMMER_MIN_DAYS` | `3` | Min days until resolution — crypto moves faster |\n| `SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS` | `8` | Max concurrent open positions |\n| `SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD` | `0.38` | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |\n| `SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD` | `0.62` | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value |\n| `SIMMER_MIN_TRADE` | `5` | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |\n\n## Dependency\n\n`simmer-sdk` by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)\n- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/\n- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk\n","tags":{"latest":"0.0.3"},"stats":{"comments":0,"downloads":712,"installsAllTime":27,"installsCurrent":0,"stars":0,"versions":7},"createdAt":1773475469295,"updatedAt":1778491902083},"latestVersion":{"version":"0.0.3","createdAt":1777385949388,"changelog":"SDK resilience: try/except runt apply_skill_config","license":"MIT-0"},"metadata":null,"owner":{"handle":"diagnostikon","userId":"s17bf2qvfsqakddyh674vczxqs83fcwb","displayName":"diagnostikon","image":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/17246180?v=4"},"moderation":null}