{"skill":{"slug":"neckr0ik-polymarket-trader","displayName":"Neckr0ik Polymarket Trader","summary":"Detect arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket. Monitor spread arbitrage, cross-market correlations, news-driven opportunities. Use for prediction market tradi...","description":"---\nname: neckr0ik-polymarket-trader\nversion: 1.0.0\ndescription: Detect arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket. Monitor spread arbitrage, cross-market correlations, news-driven opportunities. Use for prediction market trading and risk-free profit detection.\n---\n\n# Polymarket Arbitrage Detector\n\nDetect risk-free arbitrage opportunities on Polymarket.\n\n## Quick Start\n\n```bash\n# Scan all markets for arbitrage opportunities\nneckr0ik-polymarket-trader scan\n\n# Monitor specific market for spreads\nneckr0ik-polymarket-trader monitor --market \"will-trump-declare-war\"\n\n# Find cross-platform arbitrage\nneckr0ik-polymarket-trader cross-platform --markets bitcoin-100k\n\n# Correlate news with markets\nneckr0ik-polymarket-trader news --keywords \"Israel,Iran,war\"\n```\n\n## What This Detects\n\n### 1. Direct Spread Arbitrage\nWhen YES + NO prices don't equal $1.00.\n\n```\nExample:\nYES: $0.48\nNO: $0.50\nCombined: $0.98\nProfit: $0.02 (2.04% risk-free)\n```\n\n### 2. Cross-Market Correlation\nRelated markets with inconsistent pricing.\n\n```\nExample:\n\"Trump wins 2026?\" @ 55%\n\"Republican wins?\" @ 48%\n→ Logically impossible. Trump > Republican shouldn't happen.\n```\n\n### 3. News-Driven Opportunities\nBreaking news vs. market pricing.\n\n```\nExample:\nNews: \"Israel strikes Tehran. Trump demands surrender.\"\nMarket: \"Will Trump declare war on Iran?\" @ 40%\nSignal: Military action ≠ war declaration. May be overpriced.\n```\n\n### 4. Cross-Platform Arbitrage\nSame event on Polymarket vs Kalshi.\n\n```\nExample:\nPolymarket: \"BTC > $100k by EOY\" YES @ 0.55\nKalshi: Same market YES @ 0.62\n→ Buy Polymarket, sell Kalshi. 7% locked profit.\n```\n\n### 5. Endgame Arbitrage\nNear-certain outcomes close to resolution.\n\n```\nExample:\nMarket resolves in 48 hours\nCurrent price: $0.97\nBuy and hold to $1.00\n→ 3% profit in 2 days (548% annualized)\n```\n\n## Commands\n\n### scan\n\nScan all markets for arbitrage.\n\n```bash\nneckr0ik-polymarket-trader scan [options]\n\nOptions:\n  --min-spread <pct>    Minimum spread percentage (default: 2)\n  --max-results <n>     Max results to return (default: 20)\n  --output <format>     Output format (table, json, csv)\n```\n\n### monitor\n\nContinuously monitor specific markets.\n\n```bash\nneckr0ik-polymarket-trader monitor --market <id> [options]\n\nOptions:\n  --interval <sec>      Check interval (default: 5)\n  --alert-spread <pct>  Alert when spread exceeds threshold\n  --webhook <url>       Send alerts to webhook\n```\n\n### cross-platform\n\nCompare prices across platforms.\n\n```bash\nneckr0ik-polymarket-trader cross-platform [options]\n\nOptions:\n  --platforms <list>    Platforms to compare (polymarket,kalshi)\n  --min-spread <pct>    Minimum spread (default: 3)\n```\n\n### news\n\nCorrelate breaking news with markets.\n\n```bash\nneckr0ik-polymarket-trader news --keywords <terms> [options]\n\nOptions:\n  --sources <list>      News sources (reuters,ap,cnbc,bbc)\n  --market-keywords <list>  Polymarket search terms\n  --alert               Send alerts on correlation\n```\n\n### endgame\n\nFind near-resolution opportunities.\n\n```bash\nneckr0ik-polymarket-trader endgame [options]\n\nOptions:\n  --min-prob <pct>      Minimum probability (default: 95)\n  --max-days <n>        Max days to resolution (default: 7)\n  --min-roi <pct>       Minimum annualized ROI (default: 100)\n```\n\n## Output Examples\n\n### Spread Arbitrage Detection\n\n```\nARBITRAGE FOUND\nMarket: Will Bitcoin reach $100k by EOY 2026?\nYES Price: $0.48\nNO Price: $0.50\nSpread: 2.0% ($0.02)\nVolume: $1.2M\nProfit/Trade: $20 per $1,000\nAnnualized: 548% (if held 2 days)\n```\n\n### Cross-Market Correlation\n\n```\nCORRELATION VIOLATION\nMarket 1: \"Will Trump win 2026?\" @ 55%\nMarket 2: \"Will a Republican win?\" @ 48%\nIssue: Trump winning implies Republican wins\nLogic: Market 1 should be <= Market 2\nAction: Sell Market 1 YES, Buy Market 2 NO\n```\n\n### News Correlation\n\n```\nNEWS-MARKET CORRELATION\nBreaking News: \"Israel strikes Tehran. Trump demands surrender.\"\nRelated Markets:\n  1. \"Will Trump declare war on Iran?\" @ 40% → May be OVERPRICED\n  2. \"Will Israel strike Lebanon?\" @ 85% → Already occurred\n  3. \"Will oil hit $100?\" @ 25% → May be UNDERPRICED\nSignal: Military action ≠ formal war declaration\n```\n\n## Risk Management\n\n- **Spread threshold:** Only trade spreads > 2% (after fees)\n- **Position limit:** Max 10% of portfolio per market\n- **Resolution clarity:** Avoid subjective markets\n- **Execution speed:** Use WebSocket, not polling\n\n## Technical Details\n\n### Detection Speed Requirements\n\n| Method | Detection Time | Execution |\n|--------|---------------|-----------|\n| Manual | Minutes | Seconds |\n| Semi-auto | Seconds | Manual |\n| Full bot | Milliseconds | Sub-100ms |\n\n### Fee Structure\n\n| Platform | Fee |\n|----------|-----|\n| Polymarket US | 0.01% |\n| Polymarket Int'l | 2% on winnings |\n| Polygon gas | ~$0.007 |\n\n## See Also\n\n- `references/polymarket-strategies.md` — Full strategy guide\n- `scripts/arbitrage_detector.py` — Detection engine\n- `scripts/news_correlator.py` — News-market correlation","topics":["News"],"tags":{"latest":"1.1.0"},"stats":{"comments":0,"downloads":569,"installsAllTime":21,"installsCurrent":1,"stars":0,"versions":2},"createdAt":1772853354846,"updatedAt":1778491757870},"latestVersion":{"version":"1.1.0","createdAt":1772853749402,"changelog":"Polymarket arbitrage detection engine update:\n\n- Improved logic in scripts/arbitrage_detector.py for more precise arbitrage opportunity detection.\n- Enhanced reliability and accuracy of arbitrage alerts.","license":null},"metadata":null,"owner":{"handle":"neckr0ik","userId":"s1743ver4v9fjtabxtnwrxe1ms83n31n","displayName":"Neckr0ik","image":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/96146149?v=4"},"moderation":null}