{"skill":{"slug":"kalshi-politics-random-buyer","displayName":"Kalshi Politics Random Buyer Publish","summary":"Dry-run Kalshi skill that finds politics-related markets, picks a valid candidate at random, runs Simmer context checks, and proposes a trade plan without pl...","description":"---\nname: kalshi-politics-random-buyer\ndescription: Dry-run Kalshi skill that finds politics-related markets, picks a valid candidate at random, runs Simmer context checks, and proposes a trade plan without placing a real order.\nmetadata:\n  author: \"GitHub Copilot\"\n  version: \"1.0.0\"\n  displayName: \"Kalshi Politics Random Buyer\"\n  difficulty: \"intermediate\"\n---\n\n# Kalshi Politics Random Buyer\n\nThis skill scans Kalshi for politics-related markets, randomizes the candidate pool, checks Simmer context safeguards, and prints a manual-confirmation trade plan for one valid candidate.\n\n> **This is a template.** The default signal is intentionally simple: find a politics market at random, then only keep it if context and edge checks still pass. Remix the query set, side logic, price filters, and sizing model with your own thesis.\n\n## What It Does\n\nOn each run, the skill:\n\n1. Searches Kalshi importable markets using politics-related queries.\n2. Falls back to a global Kalshi scan when keyword searches return nothing.\n3. Filters for politics candidates with usable tickers and URLs.\n4. Ignores markets outside a configurable price band.\n5. Randomizes the candidate list.\n6. Ensures each candidate is indexed in Simmer using check-then-import.\n7. Fetches Kalshi market context and skips risky candidates.\n8. Picks YES or NO using a simple fair-probability edge rule.\n9. Sizes the hypothetical trade with `simmer_sdk.sizing.size_position()`.\n10. Prints a structured execution plan and reasoning for human review.\n\n## Important Limitation\n\nThis template is intentionally non-executing.\n\n- Passing `--live` is rejected.\n- No real order is sent.\n- No wallet private key is needed for the default workflow.\n- The output is a manual-review execution plan, not an order.\n\n## Required Files\n\n- `SKILL.md`\n- `clawhub.json`\n- `trade_skill.py`\n\n## Environment Variables\n\n### Credentials\n\n- `SIMMER_API_KEY` (required): Your Simmer API key.\n\n### Strategy Config\n\n- `SEARCH_QUERIES`: Comma-separated politics search terms. Default: `election,president,presidency,senate,house,governor,politics,campaign,ballot,nominee,party`\n- `MAX_MARKETS_PER_QUERY`: Maximum Kalshi results to inspect per query. Default: `50`\n- `MIN_PRICE`: Minimum YES price allowed. Default: `0.02`\n- `MAX_PRICE`: Maximum YES price allowed. Default: `0.98`\n- `FAIR_PROBABILITY`: Fair YES probability for edge checks. Default: `0.55`\n- `MIN_EDGE`: Minimum edge required to produce a plan. Default: `0.02`\n- `MAX_SLIPPAGE_PCT`: Skip candidates with excessive slippage. Default: `0.15`\n- `RANDOM_SEED`: Optional integer seed for reproducible selection.\n\n## Safety Model\n\n- Manual-confirmation only.\n- Uses Simmer context before proposing a trade.\n- Skips severe flip-flop, HOLD/SKIP recommendations, resolved markets, and excessive slippage.\n- Uses bankroll-aware sizing instead of a hard-coded stake.\n- Avoids publishing wallet identifiers in reasoning.\n\n## Local Usage\n\nDefault planning run:\n\n```bash\nexport SIMMER_API_KEY=\"sk_live_...\"\npython trade_skill.py\n```\n\nDeterministic planning run:\n\n```bash\nexport RANDOM_SEED=\"7\"\npython trade_skill.py\n```\n\nCustom politics search:\n\n```bash\nexport SEARCH_QUERIES=\"president,election,governor\"\nexport FAIR_PROBABILITY=\"0.60\"\npython trade_skill.py\n```\n\n## Remix Ideas\n\n- Replace random candidate selection with volume or liquidity ranking.\n- Add event-level filters for US elections only.\n- Add position-awareness to avoid repeat exposure.\n- Convert the dry-run plan into a proposal file instead of stdout.\n","tags":{"latest":"1.0.2"},"stats":{"comments":0,"downloads":395,"installsAllTime":14,"installsCurrent":0,"stars":0,"versions":3},"createdAt":1777775685622,"updatedAt":1778492833926},"latestVersion":{"version":"1.0.2","createdAt":1777814955832,"changelog":"- Removed all files associated with the kalshi-politics-random-buyer skill.\n- This version fully removes the skill from the repository.","license":"MIT-0"},"metadata":null,"owner":{"handle":"skybinjf","userId":"s17d60gxzm0khfph1m86prw7fn85msga","displayName":"Sky","image":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/23567092?v=4"},"moderation":{"isSuspicious":false,"isMalwareBlocked":false,"verdict":"clean","reasonCodes":["review.llm_review"],"summary":"Review: review.llm_review","engineVersion":"v2.4.24","updatedAt":1780090735032}}