# Sources — bayesian-reasoning

> *Primary and authoritative sources for the [bayesian-reasoning](../SKILL.md) skill.*

- Bayes, T. (1763). "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances." *Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London*, 53, 370-418. The original 1763 paper, published posthumously by Richard Price.
- Jaynes, E. T. (2003). *Probability Theory: The Logic of Science.* Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0521592710. The canonical modern Bayesian textbook.
- Royal Statistical Society. (2001, October 23). *Letter to the Lord Chancellor regarding the use of statistical evidence in court cases.* https://web.archive.org/web/20120925034735/http://www.rss.org.uk/uploadedfiles/documentlibrary/744.pdf
- Kahneman, D. (2011). *Thinking, Fast and Slow.* Farrar, Straus and Giroux. ISBN 978-0374275631. Chapter 16 on base-rate neglect and representativeness.
- Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases." *Science*, 185(4157), 1124-1131. The foundational empirical work on systematic Bayesian failures in human reasoning.
- McGrayne, S. B. (2011). *The Theory That Would Not Die.* Yale University Press. ISBN 978-0300188226. A history of Bayes' theorem and its practical applications, including legal misuses.
- Schneps, L. & Colmez, C. (2013). *Math on Trial: How Numbers Get Used and Abused in the Courtroom.* Basic Books. ISBN 978-0465032921. Includes detailed analysis of the Sally Clark case.