# Geopolitical & Export Control Context

Export control regimes change frequently. Everything below reflects conditions as
of early 2026. Before citing any regulation or initiative, verify current status
through official sources (US BIS, Japanese METI, EU regulations). Localization
progress in particular evolves fast and should be investigated, not assumed.

## Active Export Control Regimes (verify current status)

### US Controls on China (Oct 2022, updated Oct 2023, 2024)
- **Entity List:** SMIC, YMTC, Cambricon, and others restricted from receiving US-origin technology
- **Equipment restrictions:** Advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (sub-14nm logic, <128L NAND, <18nm DRAM) cannot be exported to China without license
- **Affected equipment makers:** Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, Tokyo Electron, ASML (via Dutch controls), SCREEN, Kokusai Electric, Ebara
- **Key search terms:** Entity List=实体清单 (CN), 실체 목록 (KR)

### Japan Equipment Export Controls (July 2023)
- 23 categories of semiconductor manufacturing equipment restricted for export to China
- Affects: TEL, SCREEN, Nikon, Kokusai Electric, Lasertec, Disco, Ebara, and others
- Complements US and Dutch restrictions
- **Key search terms:** 半導体製造装置 輸出規制 中国, 外為法

### Netherlands/ASML Controls (2023-2024)
- ASML restricted from shipping advanced DUV immersion (TWINSCAN NXT:2000+) and all EUV systems to China
- Older DUV systems (NXT:1980Di and below) initially allowed, then further restricted

### Japan-Korea Controls (July 2019, partially relaxed)
- Three materials: high-purity HF (フッ化水素), photoresist (フォトレジスト), fluorinated polyimide (フッ化ポリイミド)
- Individual export licenses required instead of blanket approval
- **Key search terms:** 対韓輸出規制, 수출규제, 탈일본, 소부장

## Localization / Self-Sufficiency Drives

### Korea's 소부장 (Materials/Parts/Equipment) Strategy
- Post-2019 massive government investment in domestic semiconductor materials
- Key targets: EUV photoresist, high-purity HF, fluorinated polyimide
- Key beneficiaries: Dongjin Semichem (photoresist), Soulbrain (HF), SK Materials (gases)
- Search: 소부장 국산화, K-반도체 전략

### China's 国产替代 (Domestic Substitution) Push
- Big Fund (大基金) Phase I, II, III investing in domestic semiconductor ecosystem
- Key targets: lithography (SMEE — SSA600 shipped in small numbers at ~90nm; SSA800 28nm immersion DUV exists as prototype, possibly 1-2 units at SMIC for evaluation, no production qualification as of early 2026; key optics/source components remain import-dependent; separate startup Yuliangsheng began SMIC immersion DUV testing Sept 2025, earliest production integration ~2027), etch (AMEC, Naura), CVD/ALD (Piotech, Naura), wafers (NSIG), photoresist (Nata Opto), CMP (Anji Micro, Dinglong)
- STAR Market IPOs providing capital for semiconductor materials/equipment startups
- Search: 国产替代 半导体, 卡脖子 技术, 大基金 投资

### Japan's Semiconductor Revival
- JASM (TSMC Kumamoto): Fab 1 operational (12/16nm, 22/28nm, 40nm). Fab 2 upgraded from 6/7nm to 3nm (confirmed Feb 2026), investment ~$17B, construction started Oct 2025 but paused Dec 2025, target late 2027 (at risk of delay due to node change)
- Rapidus (Hokkaido): 2nm GAA with IBM technology. Pilot line operational at IIM-1 Chitose since April 2025; first 2nm transistor prototype demonstrated July 2025. Mass production target 2H FY2027 (25K wafers/month). 1.4nm planned ~2029 with IBM. 60+ companies in discussions, no public customer commitments yet. IPO target FY2031
- Government subsidies: cumulative ~2.9T yen (~$19B) through METI; private investment 167.6B yen from 32 companies including SoftBank, Sony, Toyota, NTT
- Kumamoto ecosystem: Materials/equipment suppliers relocating to Kyushu
- Search: 半導体 復活, 経済安全保障, ラピダス, JASM

## Wassenaar Arrangement
- Multilateral export control regime; semiconductor equipment is covered
- Member states coordinate on dual-use technology restrictions
- Not all members enforce equally — creates asymmetries