# The Law of Shitty Click-Throughs

Coined by Andrew Chen: **"Over time, all marketing strategies result in shitty click-through rates."**

## What It Means

Every marketing channel saturates. As more companies discover a working tactic, it becomes crowded, expensive, or ignored. A tactic that worked 6 months ago is already degrading today.

## The Evidence

- **Banner ads:** Early click-through rates >75%. Today: fractions of 1%.
- **Facebook ads:** Zynga's early dominance impossible to replicate now — too expensive, too crowded.
- **Early email marketing:** Once a high-performing channel, now fighting spam filters and user apathy.

## The Pattern

1. A new channel or tactic emerges
2. Early movers get exceptional returns
3. Success attracts competitors
4. Competition drives up costs and down returns
5. The channel becomes either saturated (too expensive) or irrelevant (users tune it out)

## The Counter

- **Continuous cheap testing.** Even in working channels, run small experiments. Detect saturation early.
- **Horizon scanning.** Watch for emerging platforms/tactics before competitors.
- **Early-mover discipline.** Leverage new platforms while they're still cheap.

## Practical Detection Signals

- CAC rising month-over-month with no other changes
- CTR falling on the same creative
- Conversion rates falling despite steady traffic quality
- Competitors showing up in the same space
- Diminishing returns on added budget

## What To Do When Detected

1. **Don't panic** — if the channel is still profitable, keep harvesting but plan exit
2. **Run parallel validation tests** on 2-3 adjacent channels immediately
3. **Re-enter Bullseye** with the current data informing the next brainstorm
4. **Accept channel lifecycle** — no channel is forever

## Strategic Implication

The channel you're relying on today is saturating. The question isn't *if* but *when*. Running continuous cheap tests in adjacent channels is how you catch the next wave before your current wave crashes.

> "Consistently running cheap tests will allow you to stay ahead of competitors pursuing the same channels. The solution to solving the Law of Shitty Click-Throughs, even momentarily, is to discover the next untapped marketing strategy." — Andrew Chen

## Source

Chapter 4 ("Traction Testing") of *Traction* by Gabriel Weinberg and Justin Mares, citing Andrew Chen.