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Polymarket Nothing Ever Happens

v1.0.2

Buy NO on standalone non-sports yes/no Polymarket markets priced below a configurable cap. Based on the "nothing-ever-happens" thesis — binary markets often...

0· 83· 2 versions· 0 current· 0 all-time· Updated 3d ago· MIT-0
byAD88@adlai88

Polymarket Nothing-Ever-Happens Trader

Buy NO on standalone yes/no Polymarket markets priced below a configurable cap.

This is a template. The default logic buys NO on any non-sports standalone market where NO costs ≤5¢. Remix it with custom filters (minimum volume thresholds, specific categories, date ranges) or pair it with a signal to skip markets where YES might actually happen. The skill handles plumbing (discovery, import, fee checks, execution). You define which markets to trade.

Based on: sterlingcrispin/nothing-ever-happens

The Thesis

On most standalone binary prediction markets, the event resolves NO — nothing dramatic happens. Markets systematically overprice dramatic YES outcomes. When NO is trading at 3¢–5¢, you're getting 20–33x payout if you're right, and the base rate of "nothing happens" is often much higher than the implied 3–5%.

What It Does

  1. Scans Polymarket events via Gamma API for standalone yes/no markets
  2. Filters out sports, grouped events, low-liquidity markets
  3. Selects markets where NO ask ≤ price cap (default 5¢)
  4. Imports each candidate into Simmer
  5. Checks fees (only trades zero-fee markets) and safeguards
  6. Buys NO via Simmer SDK, sized by max_bet_usd

Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

  1. Install the Simmer SDK

    pip install simmer-sdk

  2. Ask for Simmer API key

    • They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
    • Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY

  3. Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)

    • This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
    • Store in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
    • The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed
    • Not needed for $SIM paper trading on the Simmer venue

Quick Commands

# Scan for candidates (no trades)
python nothing_ever_happens.py --scan

# Dry run — show what would trade
python nothing_ever_happens.py

# Execute real trades
python nothing_ever_happens.py --live

# Quiet mode (for cron — only prints on trades/errors)
python nothing_ever_happens.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python nothing_ever_happens.py --config

# Update config
python nothing_ever_happens.py --set price_cap=0.03

Configuration

KeyEnv VarDefaultDescription
price_capSIMMER_NEH_PRICE_CAP0.05Max NO price to buy (0.05 = 5¢)
max_bet_usdSIMMER_NEH_MAX_BET_USD5.0USDC per trade
max_trades_per_runSIMMER_NEH_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN3Max trades per execution
daily_budgetSIMMER_NEH_DAILY_BUDGET_USD15.0Daily spend limit
min_liquiditySIMMER_NEH_MIN_LIQUIDITY500.0Min market liquidity (USDC)
min_volume_24hSIMMER_NEH_MIN_VOLUME_24H100.0Min 24h volume (USDC)
candidate_pagesSIMMER_NEH_CANDIDATE_PAGES3Gamma API pages to scan

Update via CLI: python nothing_ever_happens.py --set price_cap=0.03

How It Works

Market Discovery

The skill fetches active Polymarket events via the Gamma API, sorted by 24h volume. It only considers standalone events — events with exactly one market. Grouped events (e.g. "Who wins Iowa?" alongside "Who wins Florida?" in a presidential election group) are excluded because:

  • They're often higher-profile and more efficiently priced
  • The original strategy targets isolated, under-the-radar markets

Filters Applied

  1. Standalone — event has exactly 1 market
  2. Binary yes/no — outcomes are exactly ["Yes", "No"]
  3. Non-sports — category and tags must not be sports-related
  4. Price cap — NO price ≤ configured cap (default 5¢)
  5. Liquidity — event liquidity ≥ 500 USDC
  6. Volume — event 24h volume ≥ 100 USDC

After Candidate Selection

For each candidate, the skill:

  1. Imports the market into Simmer (needed to get a Simmer market ID for trading)
  2. Skips markets where you already hold a position
  3. Checks fees — only trades zero-fee markets (fee drag destroys edge on cheap NO)
  4. Checks safeguards — skips markets with severe flip-flop warnings
  5. Executes client.trade(side="no", amount=max_bet_usd)

Risk Profile

  • You pay the ask price for NO shares (default ≤5¢ each)
  • If YES resolves: you lose your bet. If NO resolves: you collect $1/share
  • Expected value depends on how often YES actually resolves in these markets
  • The thesis: base rate of NO is much higher than 5%, so 20x payout is favorable
  • This is not guaranteed profit. The edge depends on market selection quality.

API Endpoints Used

  • Gamma API /events — Discover active Polymarket events
  • POST /api/sdk/import — Import market to Simmer (via client.import_market())
  • GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id} — Fee rate and safeguards
  • POST /api/sdk/trade — Trade execution
  • GET /api/sdk/positions — Current positions (avoid doubling up)

Troubleshooting

"No candidates below price cap" → All standalone non-sports markets have NO > cap. Lower price_cap (e.g. --set price_cap=0.08) or wait — cheap NO opportunities appear sporadically.

"Daily budget exhausted" → Hit daily limit. Adjust with --set daily_budget=30.

"Import failed" → The market may have already resolved, or the slug is incorrect. The skill skips and continues.

All candidates have fees → The fee filter is intentional — 10% fee on a 5¢ NO position eliminates most of the edge. By design.

"gamma_api.py not found" → Copy gamma_api.py from the polymarket-ai-divergence skill into this skill's directory, or install both skills together.

Version tags

latestvk9779fd0bnef7xkv8cb3vejx9d85gxmd